Gujing Liquor (000596) Research Briefing: Product Structure Efforts to Strengthen the Nationalization of the High-end Market
Key points of investment: The product structure is developed at the second-highest level. The Gu 20 actively cultivated Gujing Gongjiu as the only old eight famous liquor in Anhui Province, and the brand in the province replaced it.
As the consumption upgrade trend in Anhui Province continues, in the past, the gift version, the price of ancient 5 and other wines at 100-200 yuan / bottle was the mainstream, and gradually transitioned to the current price of ancient 8 and ancient 16 and 200-300 yuan / bottle.
On the basis of the active development of the ancient 8, ancient 16, the company began to actively cultivate and develop the ancient 20 (retail price of more than 600 yuan / bottle) last year, the overall product structure moved up, focusing on the sub-high-end.
Judging from the competition pattern of liquor in Anhui Province, there are well-known real estate brands such as Gujing tribute liquor, Kouzi cellar, Yingjia tribute liquor at the price range of 100-200 yuan / bottle, but at the price range of 200-300 yuan / bottle, gujing liquor is used asThe eight famous wines have strong brand power. It is expected to accompany the consumption upgrade in the future. The competitive advantage of Gujing Gongjiu’s sub-high-end products is becoming increasingly apparent.
The nationalization of the market has been promoted, and the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai markets have begun to make efforts to nationalize the layout. Although Gujing has the outstanding 杭州桑拿 genes of the eight famous wines and the company’s vigorous promotion of the brand, there are also more local real estate wines in foreign markets, such as Yanghe in Jiangsu., Luzhou Laojiao in Sichuan, Jiannanchun, Langjiu, Fenjiu in Shanxi, Jiujiuji in Hunan, etc. Therefore, the market competition outside the province is more fierce than in the province, but the company believes that no matter how difficult it is to nationalize it, we must continue to promote it.
The market outside the province focused on building the Hebei and Henan markets in the past. In recent years, the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai markets have also begun to exert force, and market feedback has grown even better.
In the past, the Henan market proposed to restructure the Anhui market, and later encountered difficulties in structural adjustment. 天津夜网 However, since last year, the market situation has gradually opened and has started to recover.
The company insists on the unwavering development of markets outside the province, and on the basis of achieving “ten billion” in revenue last year, the company marches towards higher-level goals.
Earnings forecast and investment rating: Upgraded to “Buy” rating to forecast the company’s EPS for 2019/2020/2021 to 4, respectively.
99 yuan, corresponding to PE for 2019/2020/2021 is 25.
01 times, consider optimistic about the company’s future national market development, raise the level to “buy”.
Risk reminders: The structural upgrade in the province is not up to expectations, the market expansion outside the province is not up to expectations, the downside of the macro economy, the impact of intensified industry competition, and food safety.